River Play

Overbets, bluff catchers, and EV maximisation on the final street.

The river is where money is made and lost. There are no more cards — every decision is final. Mistakes here are often the most expensive because pot sizes are at their largest.

River bet sizing framework

33% pot

Thin value or blocking bet. Invites calls from marginal hands. Never a pure bluff.

75% pot

Standard value bet. Polarised range appropriate. Bluffs need good blockers.

120–150% pot (overbet)

Maximally polarised. Either nuts or air. Forces opponent to use MDF with bluff catchers only.

Bluff catchers on the river: A bluff catcher beats all bluffs and loses to all value hands. When facing a large river bet, ask: "What is my opponent's bluff-to-value ratio at this size?" If they're over-bluffing, call. If under-bluffing, fold.

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